Welcome

Welcome to my personal website/blog.

Find out more about me here or on my LinkedIn profile. I also blog on the following sites:

FinanceForExcel.com

Forget the Noise

Links to the latest posts are below.

FinanceForExcel.com

Forget the Noise

GeoffNoble.co.za

Below I blog my thoughts on investing, books, technology and the world in general. I don't pretend to have all the answers. I believe the world is a very uncertain place. I do believe, though, in having an opinion - right or wrong.

[Video] How to send an 'E mail' - Database - 1984

I found this video on YouTube via LinkedIn... amazing to see how far we have evolved!


[Book] I wrote a book!!

I wrote three posts on LinkedIn over a year ago.

A rambling... what is the real point of investing your money?
On my Soap Box again… prices don’t really matter (continued)…
The Long Term Investor Myth

These were thoughts from discussions with friends. I never thought those ideas would inspire me to write a book. I jotted down some points over the last year to formulate my investment philosophy. In the last month, I have worked hard to complete my book - Forget the Noise: A Common Sense Approach to Investing. It is the first edition and I hope my thinking will mature and advance over time. As this occurs I will write more editions. I would like to thank those whose work I have read and those who I have worked with. Each of them shaped my thinking in one way or another.

See the below excerpt from Amazon for more on the book.

“FORGET THE NOISE” provides my personal perspective on what I have learned over the past ten years in the finance industry. I wrote this book for my friends. It seems rather odd that someone would write a book for his friends. So why did I spend time writing it? As the years have gone by, most of my friends’ earnings have increased, and with that, their disposable income too. I always get asked (along with being asked for the occasional hot stock tip, which I refrain from giving) what I think they should do with their excess savings. This book is my answer to that question.

Instead asking the question “How much is enough?”, I follow a different approach. How do you know what amount is really enough to sustain your lifestyle? What if you live longer than expected? Where should you invest your money? What will happen in markets over the rest of your life? These are difficult questions to answer. What you really need to do is learn how to generate a sustainable income stream that grows ahead of inflation.

This book is about building this income stream. It is about sticking to a common sense plan and “forgetting the noise” that consumes financial market participants. This book will introduce concepts such as Sources of Return, Income Replacement Ratios and Investment Scorecards. You will use these concepts to learn how to replace your salary with income from your investments.


[Opinion] The Long Term Investor Myth

We are all long term investors. We all invest like Warren Buffett. In fact, we hang on his every word. We are immune to market fads and invest conservatively. We are certainly not market timers.

Oh, whatever. Too bad none of us actually behave like we speak.

This was illustrated at a conference I attended. This was a conference full of investment professionals – you would think they knew better. A portfolio manager was talking about Company A. This portfolio manager was more than glowing with his praise for Company A. It seemed like a sure thing. But wait, Company A was only a good long term investment but didn’t look attractive right at the moment.

In my opinion, an investment is an investment. A company is either attractive to or it is not – the time period is irrelevant. This portfolio manager (and most others for that matter) calls himself a long term investor. His behaviour is at odds with this, however. He believes he can buy this stock cheaper in the short term. He is a closet Market Timer not a Long Term Investor.

In my opinion, we spend too much time saying things like:

  • “The market looks good for the long term but is a bit heated at the moment”
  • "I like the company not the stock”
  • “I think I will wait until I can buy it cheaper”

Now I am not saying valuation is not important or that some market timers cannot make any money. What I am saying is stop kidding yourself that you are a long term investor if you really are not. I do have to be honest though and say that I believe being a long term investor is the best way to allocate your hard earned capital. Is there a better way to build an income stream (see more here) over your working years than buying great companies which can pay decent dividends and grow their earnings ahead of inflation over the long term? I believe not.